Ana Farinha – Escola Superior de Ciências Empresarias – Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal, Portugal

Rui Dias – Escola Superior de Ciências Empresariais – Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal, Portugal & CEFAGE, Universidade de Évora, Portugal

Paula Heliodoro – Escola Superior de Ciências Empresarias – Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal, Portugal

Paulo Alexandre – Escola Superior de Ciências Empresarias – Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal, Portugal

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/ITEMA.S.P.2020.67

This paper aims to analyse if whether Gold (Gold Bullion: Zurich) and Silver (Silver Paris Spot E/KG) will be a safe haven for portfolio diversification in the financial markets of Germany (DAX 30), USA (DOW JONES), France (CAC 4 0), Italy (FTSE MID), United Kingdom (FTSE 100), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), China (SHANGHAI SE ASHARE), Japan (NIKKEI 225), in the period between 1 January 2019 to 2 September 2020. In order to perform this analysis where undertaken different approaches to analyse if: (i) the gold and silver market will be a safe haven when financial markets break down? (ii) If so, can market shocks question portfolio diversification? The results suggest 53 pairs of integrated markets (out of 90 possible). Gold and Silver have integrations with each other and with the USA, but the other financial markets integrate with Gold and Silver, namely the US, France, UK, Italy and Hong Kong markets (the latter only with Silver). The China market has a single integration but is integrated by the USA, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Germany, which partially rejects the first investigation question. In corroboration, causality tests show 67 causal relationships (out of 90 possible). The Markets of Italy (FTSE MID), the USA (DOW JONES) cause, in the Grangerian sense, all its peers (9 out of 9 possible), while France (CAC 40), the United Kingdom (FTSE 100), Japan (NIKKEI 225), and Germany (DAX 30) cause 8 out of 9. Silver and Gold cause the financial markets 7, and 6 times (out of 9 possible), respectively, while the Hong Kong (Hang Seng) and China (SHANGHAI) markets cause 3 and once, respectively, which validates the second investigation question. Given the high level of integration and shocks between markets, portfolio diversification may be brought into question. These findings also make room for market regulators to take steps to ensure better information among international financial markets.

Keywords

Gold, Silver, Hedging, Safe haven, Risk diversification.

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