Nebojša Novković
Ljiljana Drinić
Dragan Ivanišević
Šumadinka Mihajlović
University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Agriculture, BiH
Privredna akademija Novi Sad, FIMEK, Serbia
University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia
The analysis and forecasting of price parities for vegetables were made in relation to the prices of cereals – wheat in Serbia. The objective of the analysis and forecasting of these parities is to forecast the relative economical (price) positions of certain vegetable crops by comparing them to agricultural (field crop) products represented by wheat as the most important field crop in Serbia.
The analysis and forecasting of the price parities was made in relation to wheat for the following vegetable crops: potato, bean, tomato, pepper, onion and cabbage.
The price parities were analyzed by means of descriptive statistics for the period 1994–2017. The analysis included the basic statistical indicators: average value of occurrence, extreme value (minimum and maximum), coefficient of variation and average annual rate of change (r). Based on the established parity change rates (r) in %, the forecast was made for the period 2018-2022.
The data used in the analysis refer to the prices in Serbia. The price series in this paper are either taken from or formed on the basis of statistical publications of the Institution of Statistics of the Republic of Serbia for the relevant years. In addition to the official publications, data from the websites of the statistical institutes of the Republic of Serbia were also used as a data source.
Relative prices, i.e. parities of vegetables in comparison with wheat, as an indicator of the relative economic position of vegetables in comparison with other competitive crops, showed similar trends as the absolute, discounted prices. Slight increase of parity was noted for pepper, while the parity for bean and tomato showed significant increase. Slight decrease of parity was recorded for potato and onion. The parity for cabbage showed significant decline.
Key words
vegetables, price parity, Serbia, forecasting
References
[1] Ivanišević, D. (2015): Forecast of Production – Economic Parameters for Vegetable Farming in Serbia, doctoral thesis, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture.
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